Analysts are seeing it now

Analysts are getting it. There's a lot more warning signs than these (below), and they say we're heading sharply downward by the end of September. Article below:

Double-Dip Recession Warning Signs Everywhere! Batten Down the Hatches!

Economics / Double Dip RecessionJul 02, 2010 - 08:39 AM

By: Mike_Larson

The bright red warning signs of a double-dip recession are flashing everywhere. And I do mean EVERYWHERE.

In just the past few days, we learned that …

• New home sales imploded 33 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000 units. That’s the lowest ever recorded!

• Durable goods orders tanked 1.1 percent in May, while housing construction skidded 10 percent.

• Consumer confidence plunged to 52.9 in June, according to the Conference Board. That was a huge drop from 62.7 in May and well below the 62.5 that economists were expecting

• The Dallas Fed’s gauge of manufacturing activity dropped to -4 percent from 2.9 percent. The Chicago Fed’s activity index fell to 0.21 from 0.25. The Richmond Fed’s index fell to 23 from 26, while the Philadelphia Fed’s index plunged to 8 from 21.4, the worst reading in 10 months.

The message here? This isn’t some isolated, regional downturn. It’s one that’s spreading to every corner of the United States.

• The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Weekly Leading Index is falling off a cliff. Its growth rate just fell to NEGATIVE 6.9 percent, the worst reading in a year and far below the high of POSITIVE 28.5 percent in October. The last time this index tanked this much, recession struck within a few months.

Talk about a laundry list of worrisome reports.

If it were just the “official” economic data that was getting worse, you might be inclined to discount it. But it’s not …

Market-Based Signals of Recession Risk And Systemic Risk are Going Berserk, Too!

Take European sovereign interest rates. They continue to climb, despite the biggest European Central Bank bailout ever and an explicit pledge by policymakers to buy government debt to prop up prices.

Spanish 2-year note yields have more than doubled to 3.28 percent from 1.51 percent, for instance. Greek 10-year yields just breached the 10 percent level again. Investors have ALREADY lost more than 25 percent on the latest batch of 10s that Greece just sold in early March!

Investors are fleeing the euro for safe havens, like the Swiss franc.

At the same time, investors are dumping the euro hand over fist in favor of the Swiss franc — a typical safe haven currency in times of crisis. And they’re dumping the euro in favor of the Japanese yen, sending that exchange rate to its highest level in eight years.

That’s a market-based signal that global investors are unwinding so-called yen “carry trades” as they frantically slash risk.

More?

Gold prices just exploded to $1,265 an ounce, the highest in history. Volatility gauges like the VIX are climbing fast. And the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index just closed below key technical support in the 1,040 area.

If You’re Not Taking Action, I Believe You’re Making a Big Mistake!