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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

This is it

We have just reached the point where we have reached the edge of the cliff, two wheels are off the edge, and we're facing the rocks at the bottom. consider these facts from the last two weeks:
  • The ECRI Index, the most accurate means of predicting a recession, just suddenly collapsed down to minus 5.7, signalling a further drop into recession within three months.
  • The "Baltic Dry Index," second best leading indicator just dropped off a cliff.
  • Consumer confidence, highly correlated with future spending, and therefore the health of the economy, just clunked sharply downward.
  • The housing market just "shocked" experts with its plunge.
  • The employment market is worse than anyone predicted and clearly slowing more.
  • The European Central Bank just had its first failed auction today, a major piece of the final collapse I have been predicting. (The US had its failed auction Feb. 12th, which supposedly could "never happen.")
  • Liquidity in Europe has dried up. Banks are afraid to even lend to each other.
  • Credit default swaps on European debt, including banks and countries, are higher than they were before the European "Shock and Awe" trillion dollar bailout.
  • The US stock market has plunged 2,700 points in recent weeks, 400 points in the last two days alone.
  • Deeper recession in Europe is considered to be "nearly certain" by experts.
  • China's growth prospects have been revised downward, as have all of Asia.
  • Even Obama's bootlicker, economist Paul Krugman, who is always normally cheerleading about the economy, says we have started into a Third Depression.
  • Bankruptcies, Foreclosures, and Defaults are skyrocketing.
The big question is whether there will be a slow downward slide first, or a very sudden lurch off the cliff.

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